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Ericsson CEO Hans Vestberg says there will be more than three billion 3G mobile broadband subscribers worldwide in the next five years. Currently there are over four billion 3G mobile users worldwide and by 2014 this number will increase to seven billion.

The numbers for mobile broadband will include some users who have more than one SIM, eg, one for mobile and one for mobile broadband. He sees escalating mobile broadband opportunities over the next five years. It will be true for India as well.

For this to happen in India, which has started the countdown for 3G spectrum auction, we need a drastic change in the usage pattern. At present, most of the 3G subscribers at BSNL and MTNL networks are voice users. Can Indian operators influence consumers with better content and improve their non-voice revenues? Non-voice will be the backbone for 3G success in India.

Operators like Bharti Airtel feel that mobile Internet will be embraced by users with open hands-both rural and urban-once the industry breaks the entry barriers. Some of the recent announcements in India and the world could signal toward building a strong landscape for 3G in the country.

Fresh Lease
3G is perhaps the most talked about topic in the Indian telecom scenario in recent times. From pricing to auction delays to services, 3G has been the great epic that involved every hue of the drama. With the government eventually coming up with a final date of auction-December 7, 2009-with a final base price of Rs 3,500 crore for 3G spectrum, the industry is still in a quandary about where the 3G technology will lead the country.

3G has been taken seriously by all stakeholders of the industry. If it means raking in big moolah for service providers, then for the government it will be helpful in reducing the country's strained debt ridden economy. But the question that rules is: how long will it go in maximizing the revenue potential?

Reams have been filled with the 3G saga and, as the 3G finale draws to a close, predictions and apprehensions are coming from all across the industry.

The reasons are not tough to guess. 3G holds the promise to take India to another telecom revolution that will change the user paradigm in the country. The debates and discussions that rocked the telecom world beginning last year in July now seem to be heading towards culmination.

“3G till date has seen a lot of hype. We must now focus on the services because that will only help in lifting up the ARPUs” Kuldeep Goyal, CMD, BSNL	“It is important to deliver a great user experience in terms of access, applications and content, at every user touch point across the value chain, to hook him to the services Sunzay Passari, president, Essar Telecom Business Group	“3G has been so hyped that the expectations of customers are also soaring very high. Keeping the taste of the subscribers in mind, 3G will have to deliver its industrial best” Ashu Agarwal, vice president, network, Reliance Communications	“If we want serious RoI, we will have to cash in on the fact that India is a price sensitive market; so entry level prices will have to be very affordable” Anil Bhargava, PGM-WS, MTNL
“Critical mass has to be generated to make the prices come down else high rates will have to be extracted from subscribers” Atul Chaturvedi, COO, Idea Cellular	“Revenue will have to come from advertisement or other applications (like banking, travel agencies) not the customers” Arvind Bali, president, Datacom Solutions	“Increasing rural penetration and opex should be the prime focus of operators” Shyam Maridkar, senior VP, network services, Bharti Airtel

The industry is now faced with a plethora of challenges and pitfalls, and a possible sequel, after the launch which is being explored.

3G services that were started by NTT-DoCoMo in 2001 are now currently available in 120 countries. Currently, all mobile services in India are offered on the second generation (2G) platform, while in some developed markets more than 50% of mobile users are on 3G platforms. The country's cellular base witnessed close to a 50% growth in 2008 where an average 9.5 mn new customers were added every month. The growth rate has been phenomenal yet there is indecisiveness that exists among the telecom players regarding the response that will be achieved after the launch of third generation mobile.

Although the disconcerting fact has been that even after the launch of 3G by BSNL and MTNL, the responses from customers have largely been dismal. The two government-owned companies have notched up poor subscriber numbers despite the first-mover advantage given to them by the government to offer 3G services in December last year.