Indian telecom is moving at a break neck speed to achieve the objectives of NTP’99 to provide telephone on demand by 2002 and to achieve a tele density of seven by 2005. To achieve this, the pace of working of the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has increased, so that these objectives are within the reach of BSNL, MTNL and P-telcos. Suddenly, one can see a series of activities happening on the Indian telecom front, like the issue of guidelines for the Fixed Service Providers (FSP) license, allowing limited mobility within Short Distance Charging Area (SDCA) for FSP and guidelines for the issue of a license for the fourth operator in Cellular Mobile Service Providers (CMSP).

While the DoT is busy in finalizing the tender documents for the fourth operator, industry circles are busy with finalizing the business model for the changed scenario before they get ready for the bidding process. But to make a business model in the changed scenario is not an easy task as there are a lot of parameters, which are open-ended and one has to do a lot of permutations and combinations before planning to bid for the respective circles.

With the coming of the fourth operator, Sanjeev Anand, head, telecom and media, ABN AMRO Bank NV, said, "In places like metros and some of the states, we can see the fourth operator, but in some of the states we may not have the fourth operator as of now. With limited mobility being allowed, the sheer demographics may not allow sufficient space right now for some of the states, as the market has not matured." Having a similar view, Pramod Saxena, general manager & executive director, continental India Telecom Carrier Solutions Group, Motorola India Ltd., said, "The market has not yet reached a stage where the introduction of the fourth operator would add to the growth of the market. One would have liked to see incumbent operators like MTNL/BSNL acquire a critical mass as the third operator and take the market on a high-speed growth curve. Once that happens, then to bring increased competition, by the introduction of the fourth operator, would make more sense. So the timing is more crucial, since the incumbent and the fourth operator will start services at the same time".

There is no doubt that the fourth operator is a welcome signal for infrastructure suppliers and potential subscribers, as it will help in increasing affordability and easy availability of mobile telephony services, thereby resulting in a rapid subscriber growth believes Ashwini Bakshi, general manager, Nokia India Ltd.

Speaking about the fourth operator, Anupam Srivastava, vice president, operations, Infrastructure Development Finance Company, said, "In the short term, the market will see increased competition, resulting in lower tariffs and rapid cellular penetration. The operators’ margins will be under pressure resulting in increased capital expenditure. This will result in further consolidation in the industry."

"Operators planning to jump in as fourth operator, will have to re-access the total environment of regulation, technology, cost, internal environment and future evolution of the technology, before he joins the bidding race and there is no simple solution, as it will depend on the positioning of the company", said Rohit Chandra, director, marketing & technical solutions, Ericsson Communications Ltd.

MTNL, Bharti and Birla Tata-AT&T have gone on record for bidding of the cellular license for the fourth operator. MTNL is planning to bid for cellular licenses in six to seven states, Birla Tata-AT&T is planning to do so in seven cellular circles and Bharti for ten circles. Speaking to VOICE&DATA, Sanjeev Aga, chief executive & president, Birla Tata-AT&T said, "With the coming of limited mobility, none of us are clear about the plans, as there is no clarity and there is a lot of confusion, and we are thinking whether to participate or not. Narendra Sharma, managing director, MTNL, said "We are actively negotiating with VSNL for all the circles". On the other hand, VSNL is also considering entering as a fourth operator and is getting a financial viability study done.