"I ntelligent wireless handheld devices are going to explode, absolutely
explode over the next several years," Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft, said.
"The current Internet gold rush will be dwarfed by what is about to
happen with wireless Internet access," The Economist wrote.
"The list of potential uses for wireless communications in the future is
as endless as we dare to dream," The GSM Association pointed out
emphatically.
"By 2004-05, we expect 65–75 percent of enterprises to deploy
extension to mission-critical applications for wireless and pervasive platforms,
and expect 75 percent of corporate knowledge workers to be mobile," a Meta
Group report opined.
In recent times, no technology has shown so much promise and evoked so much
interest as wireless communications. This new phase is as big and ambitious as
any other in the long and checkered history of communications. It is believed
that wireless communication will change the way people work, communicate and
carry their very lifestyle.
With an ambitious ‘anyone, anytime, anywhere’ agenda, the wireless
technology was touted to bring all the paradigms in vogue together, to truly
un-tether the users. It was expected to converge all manifestations of computer
and phone usage onto one device that would be anybody’s single window to the
world. The new buzzwords were pervasive computing, m-commerce, 3G networks with
ultra-broadband, bluetooth, and so on.
However, the reality is far from what was projected. Each sub-domain has
progressed pretty well but the fruits of labor are yet to reach the end user.
After a lot of wait, hype, and disappointment, the mood now is of guarded
optimism.
The Backdrop
Telecommunication presents a perfect example of human spirit wanting to
break loose. The fascination of distant communication is interwoven with our
collective history.
With information technology coming of age in the last 30 years, the
telecommunication domain’s possibilities, mandate and focus has also changed
tremendously. A need to connect machines, transfer huge volumes of data, and
security of the data transfer have grabbed as much attention as the typical
communication services provided to the subscriber. In fact, the very concept of
need and access of information underwent a sea change in the nineties and a new
set of services became the order of the day.
Telecommunication is also a representative of spheres of human endeavor where
evolution is a collective growth of various inter-related domains. In fact,
today’s wireless communication is dependent on and embodies computers,
communication, networking, and applications, all rolled into one. A broad
similarity can be drawn with the evolution of the modern day personal computers,
which involved integrated electronics, principles of core computer science,
software engineering, and networking and communication. It took a collective
growth of all these realms for the personal computer to become what it is.
Some of the realms that are guiding the evolution of the new wireless
communication idiom are:
n Communication:
Standardized, wireless service anytime, anywhere
n Networking: Secure, high-bandwidth medium/pipe
n Devices: Those
that can provide the needed features and punch
n Operating
Systems and Core Services: Those that are scalable, easy to integrate with
the rest of the IT superstructure
n Software:
Killer apps that are intuitive and natural for palmtop usage
n Integration: Fully
integrated, wireless personal space—at office, at home and on the move
In a nutshell, these features would bring the world onto the palmtop. The
user will have a PC, a mobile phone and a personal digital assistant—all in a
single device on his palmtop. The term used for this phenomenon is convergence.
It has to be noted that each of the above mentioned domains are progressing
pretty well. However, the final product/solution that the end-user is seeing is
far from expected. The new thrust in the industry is on convergence. It is
broadly agreed that one of the main reasons for the advances in individual
domains not translating to tangible products/services is that they are growing
individually, without enough focus on convergence.
Convergence of Devices
The movement is towards having a single device with features of a mobile
phone, a personal digital assistant (PDA), and even a PC. The approaches have
been varied. Mobile phone manufacturers, such as Nokia and Motorola are leading
the "Enhancing a phone to have other features is easier" brigade. PDA
manufacturers such as Palm, Handspring, Psion, Casio, Sony, and Samsung are
working on the theory that essentially, the eventual device will be a personal
assistant with applications addressing various needs of the man on the street.
Palmtop manufacturers are working on the premise that what is required is
essentially a palmtop PC.
The initial indications are that the mobile manufacturers’ vision of the
convergence device may be slightly different from the general consensus. The
limitations of screen size, or the kind of applications that could be run, would
limit the mobile phone to being a phone with a few add-on features. At best,
they would cater to a small market with limited requirements.
| Crystal Ball Gazing |
| Some of the important developments that one may expect to see in the days to come are: |
 |
With individual realms reaching the desired threshold, the focus will shift to convergence—of devices, networks and content. The end-user experience of the wireless technology and the value-adds that this technology would bring will figure on top of the list |
|
Polarization of the industry along a couple of groups. This would be a good thing to happen, as there would be coherence in the efforts and choice to the consumer |
|
Enterprise applications reaching the palmtop would precede the much-fancied personal systems with entertainment and other information. The convergent device addressing personal needs will need to become more economical, and have rich new features complemented by secure high-bandwidth networks becoming available before people go out and buy them |
|
There will be a growing demand for professionals with expertise in areas across the spectrum of this domain. While specialists/companies with niche expertise would still be in circulation, resources/companies with a larger repertoire would be needed in the days to come |
|
In case of PDAs and palmtop PC makers, the essence is the same, but the focus
of what (and in what form) could be available on the device may be different.
Palm and other PDA evangelists’ vision of a truly personal device with no
hangovers from other domains, such as PCs, sounds logical and should address a
substantial section of the market. On the other hand, the ilk of Microsoft and
HP-Compaq will like to just miniaturize the PC. It is too premature to guess
which camp will have the last laugh. It is likely that the market will be split
between both the camps for some more time, till the applications on both the
devices start appearing similar.
Another class of players is companies like TI, and Intel, which are working
on chips/chipsets that would address the requirements of future devices. Some of
the chips that have emerged in this context are TI’s ARM processor
complemented by its OMAP chipset, and Intel’s Strong Arm processor.
Convergence of Networks
This is one area where there are multiple standards, and multiple approaches
have been in existence for quite a long period of time. This is also a domain
that has attracted special attention from the lawmakers across the globe.
As of today, there are networks conforming to 802.11b, 802.11a, bluetooth,
Tri-band GSM, GPRS and other standards/protocols. All of them are attempting to
realize part of the 2.5G and 3G visions (visions with performance standards laid
out, such as 2 Mbps bandwidth) to varied degrees. Even though some of these
standards/protocols address different requirements and different sub-domains and
differ in the approach to usage measurement (packet-based or airtime-based), the
primary goal is to deliver a secure channel for high-bandwidth wireless
communication.
The need of the hour is not just realization of the bandwidth but also
interoperability between the various standards. Although some companies have
come up with adapters that can allow interoperability, there is a need for more
concerted effort in this regard.
Convergence of Content
This is a weighted term. We may set aside the mobile phone content as
specific to a category of users. The desired content for devices with either PDA
origin or a miniaturized PC is still hazy and will take some time to
crystallize. Broadly, here we are looking at:
n A personal
system with access to phone, mail and Internet access
n A productivity
enhancement device with connectivity to enterprise applications that can be used
at work (by people ranging from sales force to the supervisor on the shop floor)
n An extension of
the existing system at offices that would help people to carry work with them
n A one-point
personal communication device that can be used to stream any content
(entertainment, sports, news, business critical data, etc)
As of now, different vendors are essentially trying to capitalize upon their
existing expertise. While Palm and other PDA manufacturers are addressing the
issue of adding new features, Microsoft is focussing on reinforcing its
dominance of the desktop applications and .Net realms. Companies like IBM,
Oracle, and Sun are in a wait-and-watch mode with specific add-ons to extend
their existing suites to palmtop devices. Broadly, the industry is divided along
PalmOS/ Epoch operating systems and WinCE. The industry is still in turmoil and
a lot of alignments and realignments are underway.
State of the Mart
The overall picture that emerges in today’s wireless communication
industry is of an evolving industry undergoing growing pains. Any casual
observer would notice that there is something amiss. Unlike the PC phenomenon
driven by IBM, or the Internet phenomenon driven by Sun, there is no single
company driving this initiative. While conceding that this is too large a canvas
for any single company to handle, it is seen that most of the players seem to be
working independently, pursuing divergent agenda.
Indeed we are hearing of tie-ups and joint concerted efforts towards varying
degrees of convergence, but we also notice a lack of coherence/concerted effort.
Short-term business considerations appear to be the driving force.
There is a valid school of thought that fragmentation and divergence is the
way to address this issue, with individual players focusing on specific tasks.
The void of a guiding authority with representation from all concerned is being
felt badly.
Members, India Inc
Quite interestingly, most of the reasonably big companies have a presence in
the telecom domain. Many companies have a broad expertise base and that should
come in handy in the emerging market. It is also heartening to see companies
coming up with totally indigenous devices and technologies.
However, India is at a stage where it should be aiming higher and growing
beyond being just an outsourcing backyard. The emerging telecom landscape
presents a perfect setting for this. Companies that have studiedly and
strategically focussed on the telecom domain stand to gain. Ideally, they should
have worked with the leading telecom service providers, PDA market leaders, and
mobile phone manufacturers. Any assimilated expertise in domains that address
different segments of the industry will be a value-add.
CK Keshav Chandra, senior project manager HCL Perot Systems
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