What is the biggest challenge you foresee ahead of 3G rollout in India?
Limited number of IPv4 address is the foremost challenge that Cisco and
telecom operators in India foresee ahead of 3G rollout in the country. As per a
study conducted by us, IPv4 address will exhaust by the end of September 2011
worldwide.
So far the allocation of IPv4 address in India was very limited, due to low
broadband penetration and high-end phones. After the allocation of 3G spectrum
and start of services, the penetration will increase and considering the size of
the Indian telephony market, the deadline might get preponed. The only solution
is to migrate to IPv6. Indian telecom operators should start preparing
themselves for the migration to IPv6.
What would be the applications/service that could drive the 3G tariff in
India?
As per the survey conducted by us, we predict a 130% CAGR in the IP tariff
in Asia Pacific, led by China and India. China gave away the licenses for 3G
service in the country, while the formal process has began in India and soon
private operators would start the rollout. The survey predicts that out of the
total user base, 40% of the users would use connectivity devices (laptops,
nettops, and desktops) while 50% would use mobile handsets. Video application
would be the key driver of IP traffic, and we are expecting a 60% traffic
generation from video only.
Two of the Indian operators have already started the service in India. But
they are not doing well, in terms of number of subscribers and data traffic.
Your comments.
The entry of private operators would increase the competition in the market.
It would lead to fall of data services/applications tariffs, just like we are
witnessing the voice tariff fall. Marketing also plays a key role in the success
of technology and services. Telcos have to send constant messages to subscribers
to increase the demand and drive the growth, something which both the operators
are lacking.
How would the 3G market in India evolve, considering the unique nature of
subscribers?
It is very difficult to judge at this point of time. The Indian market is
very different from other markets worldwide. It is the only market where per
second billing is introduced and tariffs have touched a rock bottom. So, it is
very difficult to predict how would the 3G market evolve. As of now we are
banking on video services.
Akhilesh Shukla
akhileshs@cybermedia.co.in
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