3G Global Scenario: 175 mn, and Still Going Strong

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Finland was the first country in the world to award licenses for new 3G mobile phone services, which, however, were first launched by NTT DoCoMo on October 1, 2001. Five years have elapsed since NTT first launched 3G services in Japan in October 2001, and as the debate for 3G spectrum continues in India, there are no signs of services anytime soon. Globally though 3G services are on way to gain wide acceptance. After paying hefty license fees for 3G spectrum, operators, primarily European, are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. The availability of affordable handsets, which was a major cause for delay in the services uptake, is no more there. Subscriber acceptability of services is also growing due to increased awareness. According to VOICE&DATA estimates, there are 175 mn 3G subscribers. CDG claims to have 80% of the market share of 3G subscribers which includes CDMA2000 subscribers as well. According to CDG estimates, more than 30 mn subscribers are being added every quarter. And according to an estimate by Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA), there are 88 mn WCDMA subscribers. There are 123 commercial 3G/WCDMA networks spread across 55 countries, half of whom have launched HSDPA.

According to data in Western Europe, 56% of the mobile market growth in the first half of 2006 is attributed to WCDMA subscriptions. Together, according to GSA, GSM/WCDMA accounts for 82% of the world mobile market.

Several service providers are on the way to transitioning to 3G technology from the current GPRS, EDGE services that they are offering. “Around the globe, in developed as well as emerging markets, operators will eventually have to deploy 3G technology to support the increased demand for voice and high-speed data services for consumers, enterprises and public service applications,” remarked Perry LaForge, executive director of the CDMA Development Group (CDG). “These services will require large amounts of bandwidth to ensure sufficient capacity, data throughput tisfactory end user experience.”

CDMA Vs GSM: The Fight Continues
It is a statistical nightmare for everybody if we go by the data provided by the CDG group and GSMA or GSA, both claiming and counterclaiming higher numbers to drive home their technology's superiority. The war of words over technology adoption for migrating to 3G continues. In a recent article published in VOICE&DATA, Alan Hadden, president, Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) said, “WCDMA is the leading 3G standard globally and is the natural evolution for GSM operators. Increasing number of CDMA operators are facing falling market share and are switching to GSM and WCDMA/HSDPA for business growth. On the contrary, CDG in its World Update while accepting that, says that the “World's once large GSM subscriber base is expected to begin its steady decline in 2008.” According to CDG's Perry LaForge, “Close to 200 operators including 28 GSM operators have deployed or are deploying CDMA2000 technologies.”

CDMA2000 and WCDMA together will account for 1.2 bn subscribers by 2010

Showing its further aggression, GSA in its market update says, “A number of CDMA operators are facing falling market share and responding by switching to the GSM family (GSM/EDGE, WCDMAHSPA) for growth. Some operators choose a dual system strategy, but most prefer to migrate their whole customer-base to GSM, the global standard for mobile communications. The vast majority of TDMA operators also chose a migration path to GSM. No instances are found of a network operator abandoning GSM in favor of CDMA. There are 28 operators using GSM either as an overlay to a CDMA network or as its replacement.”

The Way Ahead
Notwithstanding the claims and counter claims of competing technologies, it will be the subscribers who will be the final beneficiaries of the 3G services to be offered by operators. With more technologies like WiMax coming into the picture, 3G could well face stiff competition. With China trying to catch up with Europe, the launch of 3G services in India will be another key milestone towards the growth of high-speed data services in the Asia Pacific. As per CDG estimates, CDMA2000 and WCDMA together will account for 1.2 bn subscribers by 2010.

Sudesh Prasad
sudeshp@cybermedia.co.in