The entire spectrum will ultimately be reserved for things that move. No serious telecom observer/stakeholder would argue with Negroponte on that. Wireless, by its very nature, is mobile. Trying to prove otherwise is a losing proposition. No government, no lobbying, no regulator can change the truth. For a change, the Indian government this time is not trying to do the impossible. Neither are the regulators. This, of course, refers to the ongoing controversy on limited mobility.

Yes, there is merit in what the Indian cellular operators say—it will affect their business negatively. But contrary to what we are being made to believe, the options are not just two—to lower the revenue estimates or push for not allowing fixed service providers to provide mobility through their fixed point wireless system.

Let us examine the alternative to both the options. First is the assumption that cellular operators will be badly hit financially. While it is true that any new competition that comes to the market grabs some market share, it is difficult to believe that the mobile operators will be affected severely by this move. And there are reasons why they will not be:

• Fixed service providers are not ready with a business plan on how to make money out of limited mobility. If they charge more than the normal fixed service tariff, they will find few takers of their service, considering the fact that the handsets for CDMA WiLL (assuming most of them go for IS-95 CDMA) will be definitely costlier than the GSM cellular handsets. This is because of the difference in volume sales in the market.

• Just capability to move is not the differentiator between a mobile and fixed network. The traffic in a fixed network is much higher. A network designed to offer fixed service would hardly be able to match the quality of a mobile network.

Rider: Mobile operators have to improve their quality.

As far as the other option goes, keeping out competition by a little help from regulation is an outdated strategy. This is not possible today.

But what is really surprising is that, in India, the limited mobility debate is not really a battle between two camps. It is between one set of established players and another almost non-existent segment. The new fixed service licenses are open for signing. The single line solution to the problem of cellular operators is: go ahead and take a fixed service license. No one is stopping them.

In fact, that is what they are doing. The first set of applicants for fixed service licenses are all cellular service providers. With a comparatively liberal license regime, the cellular service providers who will take fixed licenses just to check competition will find that they, even if unintentionally, are in an advantageous position. They have the networks already. They have the brands. They have the basic business infrastructure. It is just integrating a few network elements and—you are ready for the show. The time to market will be much less.

As functionality, value-added services and content become important revenue generators, a hybrid network with mobile as well as broadband fixed access will have better economic sense than a service-specific network. The cellular operators of today and the multiple service providers of tomorrow will be powerful players in Indian telecom.

Maybe, in hindsight, they will thank the government for virtually forcing them to sign the fixed service licence.

Shyamanuja Das