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The 3G operators worldwide have been reporting annual increases of 300 to 700% in 3G data traffic volumes, which is further likely to grow and some HSPA networks will have capacity shorfalls by middle of 2010, says a report published by Unwired Insight.

Interestingly, the report says in the five year period to the end of 2014, 3G traffic volumes in developed markets will increase by more than 20 times. Drivers for this increase include increasing 3G penetration, continued adoption of mobile broadband services, escalating penetration of smartphones, proliferation of flat-rate service bundles and increasing usage of 3G devices indoors.

The report warns 3G operators that they need to find solutions to these shortfalls, before it is too late. Co-author Alastair Brydon says, “The effect of 3G network capacity shortfalls will be that service users experience degradation in the quality of services provided by a 3G operator, particularly at times and locations at which the network is heavily used.” “This is likely to cause serious dissatisfaction among users,” he adds.

The report discusses the actions that operators can take to delay HSPA capacity problems, such as tariff changes and fair usage policies, slowed migration of 2/2.5G users to 3G services and deployment of femtocells.

India, which is all set to embrace 3G, will also be faced by these issues of shortfalls. Industry pundits are forecasting a bright future for 3G in India. It is expected that 3G data usage will significantly go up with 3G coming in.

Evalueserve estimates that about 275 mn subscribers will use 3G-enabled services and there will be nearly 395 mn 3G-enabled handsets.

"With the availability of 3G spectrum, private operators are expected to deploy 3G services in more than 30 Indian cities. Initially, operators are likely to focus on voice services; however, over the years, revenues are also expected to be generated from data and application-related services," the Evalueserve study said.

At a time when India is struggling with spectrum crunch, and is looking at 3G spectrum to support their voice traffic, it is imaginable what kind of challenges will the operators face when they roll out their data services. With rise in data volumes, the operators' networks will be under high-pressure to support capacity.

Since 2007, 3G networks worldwide have experienced substantial traffic growth, as some 2/2.5G customers have moved to 3G services and mobile broadband services have emerged. According to the new report, this is just the beginning. Surplus HSPA capacity will soon be occupied, with continued take-up of mobile broadband services and the migration of most 2/2.5G users to 3G services within five years.

“Mobile broadband services are already having a profound impact on 3G networks, and yet mobile broadband penetration is still lower than 10% in most countries,” says report co-author Mark Heath. Such services are extremely network-intensive.

“A mobile broadband customer using 1GB per month consumes the equivalent network capacity of over 7000 minutes of voice telephony,” adds Heath. Currently, the majority of mobile users are still supported by 2G networks. “Within the next five years, the vast majority of 2G customers will migrate to 3G services, substantially increasing traffic volumes,” warns Heath.

It is a lesson for India well in time to learn from experiences of the operators worldwide who are now grappling to enhance their capacities.

heenaj@cybermedia.co.in