G is not even up and running yet, and they have already started talking about 4G? It is but natural. As with all technology progressions, the next upgrades have to be in planning and development. It is now time to think about the future of mobile called 4G i.e. the 4th Generation Wireless.

The cellular industry began developing 2G systems in the early 1980s. As experience shows, the lead-time for mobile phone systems development is about 10 years. Primary thinking on 3G took place in 1991 as 2G (GSM) systems just started to roll out. Therefore, it is felt that 4G should be operational from around 2011, and would build on the second phase of 3G when all networks are expected to embrace Internet protocol (IP) technology. During the last year, companies such as Ericsson, Motorola, Lucent, Nortel and Qualcomm came up with "3G-plus" concepts that would push performance of approved, though still emerging, standards beyond current ones.

3G networks—the first of which will be operational in 2001—will offer Internet speeds of up to 2 Mbps, 200 times faster than is possible today, making it possible to see live video clips. 4G speeds could be as high as 100 Mbps. Thus, 4G will represent another quantum leap in mobile Internet speeds and picture quality. Ericsson confirms that 4G could bring connection speeds of up to 50 times faster than 3G networks and three-dimensional visual experiences for the first time. "You will be able to have the experience of sitting in the stadium at the Olympics and really feeling you are there", according to Ericsson.

4G could be built on 3G-telephony spectrum, but higher capacity demand would create a need for even more spectrum. Operators—already investing huge amounts in buying 3G licences—would have to make additional investments in equipment and services.

Japan Aims to be the First

The Japanese Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications has announced that it is setting up a panel of experts to develop standards for 4G cellular technologies aiming to launch 4G services targeted at around 2007. Japan is planning to invest $10 billion in 4G development.

Japan can claim to be the first with wireless broadband as NTT DoCoMo—a pioneer in wireless Internet services—has announced that wireless broadband would be available to its consumers in the next ten months. In February 1999, the company introduced the ‘i-Mode’, giving wireless Internet access to now 15 million subscribers (V&D, July 2000). NTT DoCoMo is planning to introduce 3G wireless services in Japan by May 2001, which may be the first mobile broadband service in the world available to consumers.

NTT DoCoMo has been lobbying to get its W-CDMA broadband technology accepted as a worldwide standard. With the Japanese marketplace being relatively isolated from the rest of the world, Japan is the only major country using PDC technology standard for 2G mobile phones. DoCoMo calls its vision 2010 as MAGIC (Mobile multimedia, Anytime-anywhere-anyone, Global, Integerated, Customis-ed personal service).

With all the 3G frenzy, the 3G systems are on the threshold. The 3G licences are being auctioned off at astronomical prices and new mobile services are being created at a rapid pace. People in the 3G world would receive the latest information–anywhere, anytime, and make use of it on a real time basis. 4G will add ‘Multimedia’!