I don't think a day passes when there is no new news about 3G in India.
Recommendations from Trai, counter recommendations from DoT, ministers'
statements and formation of ministerial committees, claims of existing GSM and
CDMA, counter claims of those who want to jump in including foreign players-the
list of issues is almost endless. Announcement of actual 3G services, besides
MTNL that has failed miserably to take off, is what we are all hoping for.
How soon will we see services being launched by the big operators and action
is one of the most frequent questions that I come across. What it actually means
is that consumers want to know how soon will 3G services be launched, and then
how soon a price war will start to their benefit? I wish I could answer this
question.
3G, or third generation, will be the next generation of mobile communications
systems. The new technology will dramatically increase the number and type of
services that are available today to mobile users. It will offer faster and
better multimedia, Internet access, video telephony, live TV, downloading of
movies and music tracks. Interestingly, 2G itself offers a wide variety of
services, many of which we do not even use, either because they are too
expensive or because we do not need them. A common man's wallet which is seeing
an increasing amount of money going for communications, will not have to to buy
a more expensive 3G handset, and then subscribe to costlier 3G services.
On the same note, another big 3G advantage over 2G is that of speed-how
quickly data can be sent and received. 3G networks can send data up to 40 times
the rates of previous generation networks. But do we really need those speeds.
If yes, why? As of now there is no convincing answer for the dire need for such
speed. But this is what the technology trap is all about. While the Indian
Government and operators are still struggling with how to get 3G, and consumers
are waiting for it, technology vendors have already moved on to beyond 3G--to
4G. While we are yet to see 3G, the trendy amongst us are dreaming of 4G that
provides voice, data and streamed multimedia on an anytime, anywhere basis. At a
time when operators need to be spending on taking their networks to rural and
remote areas and improving their metro networks, they would build new 3G
networks.
What 3G vendors do not talk about is the financial dent operators will have
to go through to upgrade their existing networks from 2G to 3G. The money they
will make from higher ARPU is a story that will unfold, if at all, after that.
Obviously, the cost of all money invested in enhancing the network will
ultimately be passed down to the consumers. The pressure of 3G is surely
building up.
It may take a few more months, but I believe that there is lots of hype that
has got built about 3G in India now, and therefore the government must take
steps to get it going at the earliest. There is not only monetary benefit for
the government in this, but it will also surely get the government some bonus
points on popularity.
Ibrahim Ahamad
ibrahima@cybermedia.co.in
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