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What is very clear now is that all operators are going to go on the warpath once again. Statements for capturing markets have started flowing in. A few days after Vodafone took over Hutch in India, its CEO Arun Sarin said that it aims to be India's number one operator by 2010. It will be an uphill task, but pumping money for enhancing network infrastructure, offering more value added services (which Hutch was perceived to be very good at), and acquiring customers will not be a big deal for Vodafone, which easily shelled out $11.1 billion to buy out Hutch in India.

Recently, Dayanidhi Maran, Union telecommunications minister, on behalf of state-owned BSNL announced that they are targeting a turnover of $20 billion over the next three years at an annual growth rate of 27 percent. This would be achieved by adding 3 million cellular subscribers each month from January 2008, compared to 1 million new subscribers that are currently added every month. While the Mittals, Ambanis, or Tatas have not made any dramatic statements recently, their mega ambitions, and the work going on quietly, is no secret. Then there is the Maxis group from Malaysia, which also has big dreams, and has begun to spread its wings.

Where is Indian telecom headed? For very exciting times, and on a variety of fronts, I am sure. The biggest impact that I can see as a result of this aggressive posturing by the biggies will be in terms of increased spending on telecom infrastructure. If Vodafone has to be the biggest telecom player by 2010 it needs to invest huge money into network building. Similarly, if BSNL wants to triple its new subscribers, its network should have the capacity and spread to handle that kind of demand.

Enhancing network capabilities however will not be the final solution, especially when acquiring more subscribers, and increasing ARPU from existing ones will be a key objective. The answer will lie in offering value added services that subscribers find useful, and tempting enough to churn for new service providers.

Quality of service from most operators today is nothing too great. And frankly speaking business continues to grow even then. However for high-end subscribers, who will want services beyond voice, QoS will become very critical in the near future. The pressure therefore on the Government-Telecom Ministry and the Defense Ministry in particular-is likely to go up, and the extra spectrum that operators have been asking for is likely to be made available faster. Operators will however need things beyond additional spectrum to improve quality of service. Managing the network and spectrum for increasing quality and efficiency will contribute significantly to quality of service. This will happen only with more deployment of advanced OSS/BSS, and network testing and measurement solutions. One hopes that there will be more deployment of solutions and services that are aimed at ensuring a higher quality of service.

And finally, if operators will have so many things to worry about in the next phase of the race for Indian telecom dominance, outsourcing may be one big trend that one is likely to see. Outsourcing of network management, IT infrastructure, help desk, and collections could become more common. Obviously, infrastructure sharing is another likely possibility that will gain acceptance. The next phase of Indian telecom growth will surely be about working smarter and not just harder.

ibrahima@cybermedia.co.in