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With the coming of a new year, there come new resolutions and expectations, the tech industry not being an exception. The wireless world came across a whole lot of unexpected events in the past year, from the birth of the iPhone to Google's Android wireless operating standard, the spectrum war to Verizon Wireless' move to open its network. This year does not look any less eventful. The telecom industry is mulling over technology trends that popped up in late 2007, and are set to leave a mark for the next couple of years. Here is a sneak peak at some of the trends 2008 has in store.

Beyond Voice: Pulling up ARPUs
Globally, mobile operators have been a witness to declining ARPUs in the past couple of years, a trend that is now shifting its focus from developed to developing countries. This means that there will be a renewed impetus to think beyond voice-based revenue. They are left with no other option but to push data services in these markets, regain lost revenues, and get the most out of the existing networks.

Research firm Gartner is of the opinion that there is serious pressure on margins for operators in voice services, and it keeps getting worse. There are other issues like limiting roaming charges, adding to the pressure. So the life of a mobile operator is certainly not going to be as rosy as it has been for many years. To increase their revenue, this year might see increased outsourcing activity and more operators opting for network sharing.

FMC and Dual Mode: The New Avatar
It is believed that 2008 will see a massive influx of Wi-Fi-enabled mobile handsets. Some manufacturers like BlackBerry and Nokia already have mass productions of Wi-Fi-enabled and dual-mode handsets-sure to be the next 'in' thing in the handset market. Once they are mainstream, it will further push fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) to the forefront. FMC is essentially going to be the next avatar of mobile communications, tying together voice, unified communications, and wired and wireless networks in a seamless way to access information from anywhere, any time.

Ben Gibson, Cisco's director of mobility solutions, says, "Dual-mode as a device model and the ability to extend connectivity from any device both on and off campus is going to be a huge push in 2008." He also adds, "While FMC and dual mode devices might not reach mainstream status, its place in wireless will be cemented next year."

Open Network: Bonding Together
In November 2007, Verizon Wireless literally dropped a bomb when it said it would open its wireless network to outside devices and applications by sometime next year. And that became the biggest wireless story of 2007, the story of openness. This means offering any device open access to any network with the switch of a SIM card. After Verizon, it was AT&T's turn to claim that its network is and has been wide open.

Open access or devices from one manufacturer accessing other carriers' networks is expected to shake up the wireless industry. With a move to IP-based networks and open access, there will be an opportunity for carriers to be based on quality of service. On the low-end, consumers will be able to bring their own devices to a carrier's network without receiving subsidies, or the kind of support they currently expect by subscribing to a carrier's services. On the high end, consumers can get high reliability, priority access, and quality of service guarantees on applications like VoIP. Customers would self-select the service based on their preferences, including performance and price.

802.11n Standard: Changing the Rules
It is regarded as one of the best achievements in the wireless world in 2007. Still on the drafting table, 802.11n, the latest wireless LAN standard, will gain more traction come next year. Though it is anticipated that it won't be ratified until probably 2009, it hasn't stopped vendors like Cisco, Meru and others from shipping 11n enabled products. 11n separates itself from its counterparts by offering faster throughput-between 100-200 Mbps, and in some configurations up to 600 Mbps-and broader range. Experts have said that 11n is going to change the rules of the Wi-Fi game.

Analysts say that soon there will be notebooks and laptops compatible with 11n in place of 11g, and most enterprises looking to upgrade their WLAN next year will deploy 11n. Cisco's Gibson says, "2008 is going to be an interesting year for 11n. What you get with 11n is greater reliability and scale of connectivity." He is also of the opinion that 'it could revolutionize how people think of wireless.'

Fem-to-cells: The New Attraction
Issues like network congestion and spectrum crunch would haunt consumers as well as service providers in the near future. Visualizing situations like this, Fem-to-cells might come as a real savior. In the coming years, providing wireless coverage inside buildings will become a large part of a service provider's strategy, especially to serve enterprise customers. With Fem-to-cells, carriers will be able to provide better coverage for their enterprise customers in their own buildings, instead of blanketing the whole city with coverage, which bring in a lot of profit. Notwithstanding technical issues, low-cost, low-power Fem-to-cells will be a key technology used by carriers.

Fem-to-cells are wireless home base stations designed for use in homes and offices to help spread cellular coverage inside buildings. According to ABI Research, they will attract more than 10 crore users in the next five years, globally. Many operators have already started trials. It would help operators in saving huge amounts of money from having to upgrade to wired connections for homes and buildings getting low signal coverage. Also, this will help operators push rich media services onto mobile users. Ajay Gupta, VP, Wireless and Convergence, Aricent India, says, "It has a great potential for a country like India, where operators are facing the daunting task of providing cellular coverage in rural and remote areas."

However, Gartner puts a warning note on these speculations by saying, "Finding a viable mass market business model may never happen, and Fem-to-cells could end up being a 'loss leader'-something operators have to offer customers but can't expect to make money from, much like VoIP."

Mobile 2.0: All in your Hand
The ways in which mobile handsets are evolving, consumers can be sure to see more interesting things in store. The launch of iPhone created more curiosity than perhaps the first computer because with this device, the user found everything that he can expect from a hand-held device-all available rich multimedia services. With more smart phones coming to the market, we could see a much greater adoption of video-based services in 2008. In some South Asian countries, mobile broadcast TV services would be a reality and in some others, it will be true of streamed services, predicts Gartner. In video services, user generated video content- content uploaded into a mobile space so that can be used by other users-will be the next craze among users.

The other usages could be social networking and location-based services, and one would expect to see these features integrated with the operator's services.

Google Android & iPhone: The 'G' Factor
Android, and not an asteroid, would hit Earth in 2008. Android, the mobile operating system from the search engine giant Google, is expected to change the rules of the game and monopoly in the mobile operating system market might come to an end. HTC, the Taiwanese phone maker, expects to launch the first Android-based mobile phone in mid-2008. With this, other phone makers are expected to follow suit. Yahoo! is the latest contender to join the bandwagon of the mobile world. And with the likes of Google already offering in this space and sniffing around spectrum in the US, the status quo is looking increasingly shifty.

Another new player in the mobile world, clearly shaking things, is Apple with its iPhone. However, it is not just about newcomers elbowing their way in to the market, but existing telecom players like Nokia starting to reinventing themselves. It is expected that Nokia will become a major mobile software player in the coming years. It has plans to make software and services one of the main business groups. The upcoming launch of Ovi Web portal by Nokia, it is said, will change the face of mobile software and services. So, expect the Finnish phone maker to become much more than a hardware player in 2008. The company's buying streak is likely to continue. Recently, it acquired startups like photo-sharing service Twango and digital map maker Navteq.

Mobile Advertising: Ads on the Go
Mobile advertising and marketing will drive content and innovation, the fillers for falling ARPU. Carriers are all set to change their mindset from subscription-based business models to advertising-based models. Innovative services like intelligent search, location-based search, and other such services will generate sizeable advertising revenues for carriers. Mobile advertising and marketing websites such as Mginger and sms2india are emerging fast on the Internet. These websites specifically pay users to receive SMSes on their mobile phones after taking their permission. Somehow, these websites are still struggling to convince advertisers of the potential they hold to make substantial revenues.

India and China are rated as the most attractive destinations in terms of mobile marketing solutions, according to the third annual 'Apac Mobile Attitude and Usage Study' by the Mobile Marketing Association. Around 50% of the Apac mobile users were found to be moderately interested in mobile marketing solutions.

The value of mobile advertising was Rs 1,661.3 crore ($421 mn) in the US in 2006. According to the market research firm eMarketer, that number is expected to reach nearly Rs 19,730 crore ($5 bn) by 2011 in the US alone, whereas the global mobile advertising sales will reach Rs 44,590 crore ($11.3 bn) by 2011.

Gyana Ranjan Swain
gyanas@cybermedia.co.in