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The growth of wireline over the last decade or so has not only been stagnant but also negative, completely shrouded under the resounding growth of wireless. We have an estimated 40 mn wireline subscribers across India predominantly serviced by BSNL.

The status of broadband in India is a developing story which may have significant outcomes over the next year or two. India's 2004 broadband policy aims at 9 mn broadband connections and 18 mn Internet connections by 2007, and 20 mn broadband and 40 mn Internet subscribers by 2010.

Rapid growth of India's economy in the recent years and the dependence of key industries on fast connections and high bandwidth has given rise to an emerging nascent market for broadband equipment which may achieve higher growth rates within a couple of years. By the end of 2006, the pace of broadband deployments quickened. Broadband is a key focus area for all operators.

One of the key drivers for wireline growth is fixed line broadband using xDSL technology. Unfortunately, India has been lagging behind in leveraging copper networks convincingly to deliver high-speed ADSL/VDSL. This is probably because of the very low PC penetration, assuming that the stepping stone application for broadband is Internet usage. On the other hand, PC costs have been prohibitive from a common man's perspective that its home penetration is still very low.

Although it is the chicken-and-egg story, we still have not lost much, because the predominant number of fixed line users happen to be in urban areas where PC penetration is better and high speed broadband is more than welcome at affordable prices. However, if India has to achieve global scale and quality broadband services of, say, 2 Mbps and beyond, then it has to critically look at and assess its outside plant conditions and the quality of local loop.

Most of the copper that stands buried years ago could have deficiencies in terms of multi-gauge cable, bridge-taps, load coils, inappropriate cabinets or even inadequate grounding and shielding, which are critical barriers for trouble free high-speed data services using xDSL technology.

The other scenario for wireline expansion is where the operator runs fiber to the kerb or building, and runs copper in the last few hundred meters to the subscriber. Operators like Reliance and Bharti deploy this architecture, although the focus is not quite as high as wireless.

In either scenario, reliable connectivity infrastructure is an important component of performance and customer experience. Some infrastructure companies operate both in copper and fiber connectivity, including advanced technologies like FTTx.

Technologies
A large portion of the broadband subscriber growth that has happened in the recent times has been primarily on copper. But the issue with copper is that it is limited, and the quality of most existing copper is not adequate to handle DSL subscribers.

With a huge untapped market to be addressed, operators are looking at deploying broadband wireless access technologies like WiMax. Not only are these technologies quick to roll out, but are also ideal to cater to the Indian market since they are end-to-end, based on IP and are spectral efficient supporting features like SOFDMA, MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), Beam forming using smart antenna technologies, etc.

Broadband components would vary depending on the type of technology deployed. So, for instance, in the case of DSL (Digital Subscriber Line), we have DSLAM/MSAP (Multi Service Access Platform) in the access node.

In terms of the CPEs (Customer Premise Equipment), there are different devices like ADSL, VDSL, etc. The fixed medium between the CPEs and the access node is copper.

For higher bandwidth applications, we have FTTH/FTTX with GPON solution. This comprises OLT (Optical line terminal) at the customer premise location and ONT (Optical network Terminal) at the exchange location. Transmission medium here is fiber.

Another technology through which broadband can be offered is cable TV/HFC (Hybrid Fiber Coax Network) where the transmission medium is a coax cable. In the case of WiMax 802.16 Rev E, some infrastructure companies have a WiMax BTS and a WAC (wireless access controller), satellite-based VSAT technology is another way of providing broadband.

Market Trends
In urban areas, India has corporate users who need high bandwidth for various applications. Additionally, with Internet banking, e-commerce, matrimonial portals, and e-ticketing (railways and airline) catching up, residential users are also looking at adopting broadband in a big way.

In rural areas, the emphasis is on providing several applications to improve the living standards of this segment. There is a focus on providing e-gov, e-education, and e-medicine applications to remote rural areas, and broadband is the key technology that can make this possible.

Operators demand low cost but easy to deploy solutions. Currently, a majority of the broadband rollout has been happening on copper through ADSL technology. Also, some operators are providing broadband through cable and fiber. But, with limited copper and the need to pump up the broadband growth, operators are looking at wireless access technologies.

India is a largely unpredictable market. With spectrum issues playing havoc in the wireless segment, operators are still unclear on the broadband roadmap. With cheaper options like WiMax Rev E available in the market, wireline, with its higher QoS option, is an opportunity yet to be tapped.

TRAI, sometimes ago, released a revolutionary recommendation addressing various issues for accelerating the growth of broadband and high-speed Internet access in the country. It is expected that broadband access will experience growth similar to that witnessed in mobile telephony if the critical area of Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) is addressed.

One reason why DSL (digital subscriber loop) didn't make enough inroads was the monopolistic bottleneck in the critical local loop of the incumbent carrier. A large share of this local loop is owned by MTNL and BSNL.

Unbundling refers to the process in which incumbent carriers lease, wholly or in part, the local loop components of their telecommunications network to other carriers or service providers. The LLU, in principle, provides new entrants access to the local loop and encourages the provisioning of complimentary broadband services.

The government had set a target of 9 mn broadband subscribers by 2007 and 50 mn by 2010. In fact, the government had declared the Year 2007 as the 'Year of Broadband'. The broadband subscriber base stands at around 2.9 mn as of date. But with the wireless industry embroiled in speculation over wireless spectrum for the best part of 2007, the focus was lost.

With the clarity over spectrum issues coming, it is hoped that attention would again be on broadband and with the target of 20 mn subscribers (as suggested in the 2004 Broadband Policy) by 2010, operators have realized that there is a need to expedite the rollout of broadband further. As of date, around 85% deployments are on the DSL technology.

With bandwidth requirements set to grow manifolds, fiber-based technologies like GPON (Gigabit Passive Optical Network) and EPON (Ethernet PON) are also being considered by operators. But, to cater to the targets set by the government, we would also need to look at BWA (Broadband Wireless Access) technologies like WiMax Rev E, which not only provides high data throughputs, but also supports mobility, a feature that would be relevant for the corporate segment.

Pricing Issues
In India, income is unequally distributed, with the top 5-10% of the population having a far higher income than the average. For this relatively small group, broadband is more affordable and they stand to benefit from services-like IPTV-that the broadband networks of the future will carry. TRAI has pointed out that incumbents have not been able to fully utilize their infrastructure themselves. This is proved by the fact that despite broadband prices moving down to match that of dial-up services, the number of broadband subscribers is still only a seventh of Internet subscribers.

Hence, the supply of broadband simply has not been able to keep up with the demand. The implication is that once broadband coverage catches up with Internet coverage, a majority of Internet subscribers should turn to broadband. The number of broadband subscribers could, therefore, increase quickly by a few million in the near term.

The main limiting factor for Internet and broadband penetration has been PC penetration. Purchasing a PC remains out of reach for the vast majority of India's population, which still has an average per-capita income of about $3,400 in PPP terms per year (according to the 2005 estimate).

The growth of broadband is set to be in line with the growth in wireless access technologies such as 802.16e. Operators can look at concentrating on such wireless technologies along with a focus on optical access such as FTTx, etc. WiMax will contribute to the deployment of broadband in the region, to improve broadband penetration in areas with low population density and difficult access.

Wireline infrastructure providers feel that mobile operators should go for an optimized combination of wireless/wired access technologies and innovative services which can accelerate broadband adoption in India. They should also define an end-to-end architecture to serve very heterogeneous user segments with leapfrog to new technologies (DSL, FTTH, WiMAX, IP) and innovative business models built into them.

Bearing in mind that the existing local loop is something that was established over a period of 50-60 years-much before the advent of xDSL technology-the quality of the local loop is a critical factor of reliable broadband services. For instance, multi-gauge cable, bridge-taps and load-coils introduced into the network over time are onerous obstructions for DSL, actually reducing the threshold of quality as compared to voice services. It is, therefore, important that the local loop is upgraded in terms of the connectivity infrastructure and the best practices of grounding and shielding.

In recent years and with increasing momentum, incumbent operators in Western Europe and the UK, North America and in some countries of East Asia have been transitioning from internal experimentation, lab trials and limited external trials among friendly customers, into scaled production IPTV deployments. The largest deployments in the world are now found in these regions. In India, too, operators have been following the same path and the market is experiencing similar trends.

In some regions, most notably in the US, IPTV deployments happened later for the large operators than it did for US independents and Canadian ILECs, which were pioneering video services as early as the late 1990s. This was before the advent of all IP broadband networks or true high-speed access. Additionally, enabling technology platforms-including middleware, video encoding, content protection, test-and-measurement, and end-to-end IT software platforms-have evolved significantly.

In order to offer TV services, operators must assemble, deploy and manage a highly interdependent ecosystem consisting of networks, computing systems, content processing systems, customer premises devices, and software.

As a result of the evolution of these systems and enabling technologies, as well as the emergence of new service and business models, the increasing sophistication level of consumers and rising expectations of operators, it has become even more important of the choice of solutions.

The policy regarding broadband is still under review and might take some time before the complete picture emerges although initiatives like last mile bundling have definitely painted a brighter picture.

India has in many ways led innovative business models, one of which is the managed services networks widely implemented by Bharti in the Wireless GSM space. Perhaps a similar model in the wireline space would open several technology options and deliver profitable wireline broadband growth turning it explosive in the not too distant future.

Baburajan K
baburajank@cybermedia.co.in